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Prediction for CME (2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-27T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27889/-1
CME Note: Wide S/SW filament eruption seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is filament eruption spanning from S30W10 to S10W40. Liftoff seen starting at 2023-11-27T05:20Z in SDO AIA 304. Filamentary material seen leaving the surface, and post-eruptive brightening also seen in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 imagery. Moving field lines off the SW limb seen in SDO AIA 171 at 05:45Z. Dimming and ejecta seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 05:30Z. There is no clear evidence of a CME arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1. There is however a slight chance that this CME combined with two later, more prominent, CMEs: 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001 and 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001but for the later combined arrival at 2023-11-30T23:29Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T06:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Lead Time: 49.92 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-11-28T04:05Z

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